Installed Capacity已投产产能
120,870t/d
152 furnaces · 604 lines152 窑 · 604 线
In-Production在产产能
95,190t/d
YoY −5.1%
Utilisation 20242024 利用率
78.8%
→ 80% 2025E→ 2025E 80%
Ultra-White Output 20242024 超白产量
28.72Mt
+15.9% YoY
Module Capacity 20242024 组件产能
1,156.5GW
→ 1,445.6 GW 2025E→ 2025E 1,445.6 GW
Top-2 Concentration双寡头占比
~58%
Xinyi + Flat Glass信义 + 福莱特
The six numbers, in one sentence六个数字，一句话
China sits at the bottom of a self-imposed utilisation trough — 95,190 t/d running against 120,870 t/d installed — while ultra-white output still grew 15.9% to meet a module fleet expanding from 1,156.5 GW toward 1,445.6 GW. Two firms own 58% of the working capacity. Whatever happens to solar glass margins is a function of how those two manage the gap between installed and lit. 中国处于自我设定的利用率低谷 — 已投产 120,870 吨/日中只有 95,190 吨/日在产 — 同时超白产量仍同比增长 15.9%，喂养着从 1,156.5 GW 扩张至 1,445.6 GW 的组件队列。两家公司占据在产产能的 58%。光伏玻璃利润率的走向，取决于这两家如何管理"装机 vs 点火"之间的缺口。
One structural take. The Anti-Neijuan pact is not a price-fixing scheme — it is a capacity-discipline scheme. Watch cold-repair tonnage and restart tonnage, not headline prices. If 22,890 t/d of cold-repair (2024) keeps climbing, the floor is real. If restart tonnage (1,350 t/d in 2024) starts to outrun cold-repair, the floor is breaking.
一句结构判断。 反内卷不是限价协议，是产能纪律协议。看冷修吨位和复产吨位，不看头条价格。如果 2024 年 22,890 吨/日的冷修继续攀升，底是真的。如果复产吨位（2024 年 1,350 吨/日）开始反超冷修，底就破了。
What this report covers本报告覆盖
- 02 Capacity landscape产能全景
- 03 Top 10 listed players, ranked十大上市玩家排名
- 04 Utilisation cycle & cold-repair tonnage利用率周期与冷修吨位
- 05 Output & downstream module demand产量与下游组件需求
- 06 Cost stack & the four levers成本结构与四根杠杆
- 07 "Anti-Neijuan" policy timeline反内卷政策时间线
- 08 Listed financials & live quotes上市公司财务与实时行情
- 09 Geographic map of producers生产商地理地图
- 10 Wing's Take — observations onlyWing 视角 — 只观察
Method方法
All figures are 2024 audited or 2025E. No forecasts. No re-estimates. Live quotes refresh on open. 所有数字为 2024 年审计值或 2025E。不做预测，不再估算。实时行情打开时刷新。