Installed vs in-production — the 21% gap已投产 vs 在产 — 21% 的缺口
152 furnaces with 604 lines representing 120,870 t/d of installed capacity. But only 102 furnaces / 457 lines / 95,190 t/d are actually firing. That 25,680 t/d gap is the cold-repair queue plus voluntary idling — the policy lever the industry pulls in unison. 152 座窑炉、604 条线，已投产 120,870 吨/日。但实际点火只有 102 窑 / 457 线 / 95,190 吨/日。25,680 吨/日的缺口就是冷修队列加上自愿停产 — 行业一致拉动的政策杠杆。
Installed vs In-Production (t/d)已投产 vs 在产（吨/日）
2024 EOY2024 Capacity Actions (t/d)2024 产能动作（吨/日）
new build / restart / cold-repair新建 / 复产 / 冷修The capacity ledger产能台账
| Bucket类别 | Furnaces窑数 | Lines线数 | t/d吨/日 | Note备注 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Installed (EOY 2024)已投产 | 152 | 604 | 120,870 | Headline industry capacity行业表观产能 |
| In-Production在产 | 102 | 457 | 95,190 | YoY −5.1% (utilisation discipline)同比 −5.1%（利用率纪律） |
| New build 20242024 新建 | — | — | 18,400 | Pre-pact pipeline协议前的管线 |
| Restart 20242024 复产 | — | — | 1,350 | Modest — pact effect克制 — 协议效应 |
| Cold-repair 20242024 冷修 | — | — | 22,890 | The discipline lever纪律杠杆 |
Read the ratio. Cold-repair (22,890) ≫ Restart (1,350). The industry is consolidating idle capacity faster than it is bringing capacity back. That is the single most important number in this report.
看比例。 冷修 22,890 ≫ 复产 1,350。行业冷封产能的速度远快于复产。这是本报告里最重要的一个数字。