Five structural observations五条结构性观察
No forecasts. Each observation paired with one signal to watch. Reader does the forecasting. 不做预测。每条观察配一个待观察信号。预测留给读者。
The pact is in cold-repair, not in price协议在冷修里，不在价格里
22,890 t/d of cold-repair vs 1,350 t/d of restart in 2024 is the real number. Headline glass prices are noise; the cold-repair calendar is the signal. As long as cold-repair tonnage exceeds restart tonnage, the floor is policy-anchored, not market-anchored. 2024 年冷修 22,890 吨/日 vs 复产 1,350 吨/日是真数字。头条玻璃价格是噪声；冷修日历是信号。只要冷修吨位 > 复产吨位，底就是政策锚定，不是市场锚定。
Two firms own the dial两家公司掌握刻度盘
Xinyi + Flat Glass = ~58% of in-production capacity. Whatever direction the industry takes is, in practice, their joint decision endorsed by the regulator. Reading the industry is reading those two firms' capex calls, cold-repair announcements, and AGM language. 信义 + 福莱特 = 在产产能约 58%。行业的任何方向，实际上就是它们两家的联合决策，加上监管背书。读行业 = 读这两家的 capex 电话会、冷修公告、AGM 用语。
Demand grew faster than glass需求长得比玻璃快
Module capacity +25% (1,156 → 1,445 GW). Glass output +15.9% (24.8 → 28.7 Mt). The arithmetic gap is the floor under glass margins. As long as module builders cannot procure glass at marginal cash cost, the floor holds even when prices wobble. 组件产能 +25%（1,156 → 1,445 GW）。玻璃产量 +15.9%（2,480 → 2,872 万吨）。算式缺口就是玻璃利润率的底。只要组件商无法以边际现金成本采购玻璃，即便价格波动，底就在。
Three of four cost inputs are soft四个成本投入中三个偏软
Soda ash flat-to-soft, silica sand soft (Wing's own market — CIF $25–31), natural gas flat, electricity flat with clean share rising. Input inflation will not lift the cost floor; the floor must come from supply discipline or demand pull. Both visible, neither automatic. 纯碱稳到偏弱，石英砂偏弱（Wing 自己的市场 — CIF 25–31 美元），天然气稳，电力稳且清洁能源占比上升。投入通胀不会抬升成本底；底必须来自供给纪律或需求拉动。两者都可见 — 但都不是自动的。
Anhui is the centre of gravity安徽是重力中心
Eight of the listed-company production sites are in Anhui. Silica sand from local mines, gas from west-east pipeline, Yangtze logistics to export. Any policy shock to Anhui — environmental, energy, transport — reads through the entire industry within one quarter. 上市公司在产工厂有 8 个在安徽。本地矿砂、西气东输天然气、长江物流出口。安徽任何政策冲击 — 环保、能源、交通 — 一个季度内传导到整个行业。