The 78.8% trough78.8% 的低谷
2024 closed at 78.8% utilisation — the lowest level in five years. The 2025E target is 80%, a 1.2-point recovery. Modest. The recovery is rationed by the Anti-Neijuan pact: restart only what cold-repair frees up, no faster. 2024 年收于 78.8% 利用率 — 五年最低。 2025E 目标 80%，回升 1.2 个百分点。克制。回升由反内卷协议配给：只复产冷修释放的，不更快。
Utilisation rate trajectory利用率轨迹
2021–2025E2024 → 2025E
Utilisation利用率78.8% → 80%
In-Production在产95,190 → 96,400 t/d
Cold-repair冷修22,890 → 24,500 t/d
The discipline math纪律算式
Cold-repair growth (+7%) ≫ restart growth (~1%). Net: idle capacity continues to pile up faster than it returns. Floor holds. 冷修增长 (+7%) ≫ 复产增长 (~1%)。净值：闲置产能继续以快于复产的速度堆积。底部稳定。
What breaks the floor什么会破底
Module demand < 1,200 GW in 2025E, plus restart tonnage > cold-repair tonnage in any quarter. Either signal breaks the floor. 2025E 组件需求 < 1,200 GW，加上任意季度复产吨位 > 冷修吨位。任一信号破底。