Four levers under every furnace每座窑炉下的四根杠杆
Soda ash, silica sand, natural gas, electricity. These four inputs explain ~80% of solar glass cash cost. Each is moving — soda ash supply added 29.6 Mt in Q1–Q3 2025 (+4.3% YoY), natural gas 194.9 bcm (+6.4%), electricity consumption 10.1 trn kWh in 2024 (+6.7%, with clean-energy share +16.4%). The cost stack is becoming less of a cyclical story and more of a regulated one. 纯碱、石英砂、天然气、电力。这四个投入解释了光伏玻璃约 80% 的现金成本。每个都在动 — 纯碱 2025 年 Q1–Q3 供给 2,961.1 万吨（同比 +4.3%）、天然气 1,949 亿立方米（+6.4%）、2024 年用电 10.1 万亿千瓦时（+6.7%，清洁能源占比 +16.4%）。成本结构越来越不像周期故事，越来越像监管故事。
Cost stack composition (approximate %)成本结构占比（近似）
industry typical, full-cost basis行业典型，全成本口径The four-input ledger — 2025 movement四投入台账 — 2025 变动
| Input投入 | Share of cash cost现金成本占比 | 2025 signal2025 信号 | Direction方向 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soda ash纯碱 | ~25–30% | Q1–Q3 supply +4.3% YoY (29.6 Mt)Q1–Q3 供给同比 +4.3%（2,961 万吨） | flat→soft稳→偏弱 |
| Silica sand石英砂 | ~10–15% | Imports 4.9 Mt in 2025 · CIF $25–312025 进口 490 万吨 · CIF 25–31 美元 | soft偏弱 |
| Natural gas天然气 | ~25–30% | Q1–Q3 consumption 195 bcm (+6.4%)Q1–Q3 消费 1,949 亿立方米（+6.4%） | flat稳 |
| Electricity电力 | ~15–20% | 2024 use 10.1 trn kWh · clean +16.4%2024 用电 10.1 万亿 · 清洁 +16.4% | flat稳 |
The pattern. Three of four inputs are flat-to-soft on the supply side. The cost floor under solar glass is unlikely to come from input inflation. It must come from policy (capacity discipline) or demand (module pull). Both are visible — neither is automatic.
模式。 四个投入中有三个的供给侧"稳到偏弱"。光伏玻璃的成本底不太可能来自投入通胀。它必须来自政策（产能纪律）或需求（组件拉动）。两者都可见 — 但都不是自动的。