From price war to capacity pact从价格战到产能契约
The phrase "anti-neijuan" (反内卷) emerged from the State Council in 2024 to describe a policy posture against destructive intra-industry competition. For solar glass, this materialised as voluntary capacity discipline coordinated by the top two firms, with regulator endorsement. The mechanism is not direct price control — it is cold-repair scheduling, restart pacing, and new-build moratoria. "反内卷"一词 2024 年由国务院系统提出，描述对内部破坏性竞争的政策姿态。对光伏玻璃而言，落地为头部两家协调的自愿产能纪律，监管认可。机制不是直接限价 — 是冷修排程、复产节奏、新建暂停。
2023 Q4
Margins collapse利润率塌陷
Average solar glass net margin falls below 5% for the first time in five years. Output continues to grow despite price weakness.
光伏玻璃平均净利率五年来首次跌破 5%。尽管价格疲软，产量继续增长。
2024 Q1
First "anti-neijuan" signalling首次"反内卷"表态
State Council and MIIT discourse against destructive competition. Industry trade body issues capacity discipline guidance.
国务院与工信部话语反对破坏性竞争。行业协会发布产能纪律指引。
2024 Q2–Q3
Cold-repair acceleration冷修加速
Top-2 firms accelerate cold-repair on older lines. 2024 cold-repair tonnage reaches 22,890 t/d — vs new-build 18,400 t/d and restart 1,350 t/d.
头部两家加速老旧线冷修。2024 冷修吨位达 22,890 吨/日 — 对比新建 18,400、复产仅 1,350。
2024 Q4
Utilisation falls to 78.8%利用率降至 78.8%
In-production capacity drops 5.1% YoY to 95,190 t/d. Headline price stabilises. Margins begin to recover at the leaders.
在产产能同比降 5.1% 至 95,190 吨/日。头条价格企稳。头部利润率开始恢复。
2025 H1
Module demand surges组件需求激增
New solar install jumps 54.1% YoY (212 MW in H1). Module capacity expands to 1,445.6 GW guidance. Glass output guides to +14% (28.7 → 32.7 Mt).
新增光伏装机同比 +54.1%（H1 2.12 亿千瓦）。组件产能扩张指引 1,445.6 GW。玻璃产量指引 +14%（2,872 → 3,274 万吨）。
2025 H2
Discipline test纪律测试
2025E utilisation target 80% (vs 78.8% actual 2024). The 1.2-point recovery is the rationing test — does the pact hold when demand pulls?
2025E 利用率目标 80%（对比 2024 实际 78.8%）。1.2 个百分点回升是配给测试 — 需求拉动时协议守得住吗？
What the pact is, and isn't. It is not price-fixing. It is not a binding cartel. It is shared cold-repair scheduling, restart pacing, and a tacit agreement to not chase share through capacity-build. Watch the ratio of restart-tonnage to cold-repair-tonnage. As long as that ratio stays below 1, the pact is functional.
协议是什么，不是什么。 不是限价。不是有约束力的卡特尔。是共享的冷修排程、复产节奏，以及不通过新建产能争份额的默契。看复产吨位与冷修吨位的比值。只要比值低于 1，协议就在运行。